John Hayward's Work

We found 12 items

#1 - Limits to Growth Archetype

by John Hayward - 654 runs - 45 downloads
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Shifting loop dominance in a limits-to-growth archetype is examined using the Hayward/Boswell Loop Impact Method.

#2 - Turchin’s Metaethnic Frontier Theory of Imperial Growth

by John Hayward - 166 runs - 31 downloads
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A country builds its empire by attacking its neighbours and taking over both their land and their people. The larger the empire becomes, the more resources they have available to take further territory by force. However the further they expand, the harder they find it to keep expanding due to the geographical and organisational logistics involved. Additionally the empire finds it harder to maintain social cooperation among its people, its asabiya.

#3 - Inventory Workforce Model

by John Hayward - 210 runs - 41 downloads
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Oscillations in an Inventory Workforce model are examined using the Hayward/Boswell Loop Impact Method.

#4 - Collins Theory of Geopolitics - Effect of War

by John Hayward - 156 runs - 18 downloads
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The spread of an empire according to the theory of Randall Collins and equations of Peter Turchin

#5 - Limited Enthusiasm Model of Church Growth

by John Hayward - 130 runs - 12 downloads
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A model of the growth of the Christian Church in periods of religious revival. The growth mechanism is similar to the spread of an infectious disease.

#6 - Demographic Fiscal Model of State

by John Hayward - 17 runs - 7 downloads
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An agrarian population can exceed its normal carrying capacity by the formation of a state that helps improve land productivity. As the population and state grow, it becomes harder for state revenue to stay ahead of expenditure. Eventually the state runs out of money and collapses, with a large drop in population numbers.

#7 - Collins Theory of Geopolitics - Logistical Load

by John Hayward - 39 runs - 12 downloads
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The spread of an empire according to the theory of Randall Collins and equations of Peter Turchin. Includes limits to growth due the distance beween the empire's expansion zone and centre.

#8 - Urban Business Expansion

by John Hayward - 80 runs - 15 downloads
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The business sector of the Three Stock Urban Dynamics model is examined using the Hayward/Boswell Loop Impact Method.

#9 - Spread of Disease

by John Hayward - 56 runs - 26 downloads
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A simple SIR model is examined using the Hayward/Boswell Loop Impact Method.

#10 - The Dynastic Cycle

by John Hayward - 127 runs - 11 downloads
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The model of Feichtinger, Forst and Piccardi.

#11 - Rise and Fall of Empires

by John Hayward - 10 runs
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Empires rise through the desire for things such as power, peace & wealth. It can even attract others. However the rise of nationalism, institutionalism and the remoteness of the ruling elite can lead to imperial decline

#12 - Overshoot and Collapse

by John Hayward - 16 runs - 18 downloads
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Overshoot and collapse behaviour is examined using the Hayward/Boswell Loop Impact Method.