403e2969-7bfc-4899-a615-e872037420c0
isee systems, inc.
1999
2019
64
EUR
euro
mo
month
yr
year
1/Years
EUR/(person-year)
kWh/day
kW
kilowatt
1
dmnl
unitless
(Production_capacity_goal-Production_capacity)/Capacity_adj_time
eur/year/Years
Production_capacity_goal
Change_in_capacity
eur/year
SMTH1(AD, .25, 10e+12)
eur/year
(Total_consumption+Net_exports_data+Investment+Government_spending_data)
eur/year
Production_capacity_goal/Production_capacity
unitless
(Capacity_utilization*Production_capacity)
eur/year
2
HH_profits+(HH_interest_income_index*HH_interest_income_share_of_profits_income*
HH_profits)*1
eur/year
GDP
*(1-HH_share_of_GDP)
eur/year
HH_consumption+LH_consumption
eur/year
HH_prospensity_to_consume * SMTH1( HH_income - HH_taxes , .25 )
eur/year
0.35*(long_term_interest_rate/INIT(long_term_interest_rate))
^interest_rate_elasticity_HH
unitless
LH_prospensity_to_consume*
SMTH1(LH_income-LH_taxes, .25)
eur/year
0.8*(long_term_interest_rate/INIT(long_term_interest_rate))
^interest_rate_elasticity_LH
unitless
TIME
86767188958,54316933124,108302000000,189096000000,155845000000,179456000000,137117000000,114819000000,142651000000,113379000000,156573000000,148301000000,159861000000,289142000000,350187000000,392495000000,469474000000,476139000000,488196000000,467716000000,405201000000
eur/year
Propensity_to_invest*GDP
eur/year
TIME
0.3755,0.3977,0.389,0.394,0.401083333,0.399111111,0.400277778,0.395473684,0.395736842,0.396263158,0.395473684,0.393315789,0.395578947,0.398105263,0.401105263,0.397684211,0.397105263,0.394631579,0.392105263,0.393,0.388933333
Per Year
.3
unitless
.167
unitless
HH_income*tax_rate_HH
eur/year
LH_income*tax_rate_LH
eur/year
(long_term_premium)+(Policy_rate_data)
per year
-.05/5
unitless
-.05/5
unitless
asset_mkt_price_index
98,98.3,98.9,99.5,100,100.6,101.1,101.6,102
eur/year
asset_mkt_price_index
103,102.3,101.6,100.8,100,99.4,98.8,98.4,98
EUR/year
1/25
{1 week}
year
asset_demand +
IF(QE_switch=1)
THEN(QE_share*Monthy_QE_index)
ELSE(0)
eur/year
total_asset_demand/Total_asset_supply
EUR/asset
(SMTH1(indicated_asset_price, asset_price_adj_time, 100))
EUR/asset
100
bonds
0.03*100
EUR/year
IF(TIME<2009)
THEN(long_term_premium_data)
ELSE(
(100 * (fixed_asset_interest_pmt) / (asset_mkt_price_index))+Expected_inflation^Elasticity_of_inflation)
Per Year
TIME
131372390.29,132412569.41,133452748.53,134492927.65,135533106.76,136573285.88,137613465,137950900,139387100,141255700,142038400,142452500,143555700,144793800,145855300,147700400,148812100,149514500,150337900,151369300,152325500
Households
avg_income_per_HH/avg_income_per_LH
unitless
LH_income/(Total_households*.8)
eur/year
HH_income/(Total_households*.2)
eur/year
avg_income_per_HH*(1-tax_rate_HH)
/avg_income_per_LH*(1-tax_rate_LH)
unitless
TIME
4232000000,4303944000,4377111048,4451521936,4527197809,4604160171,4682430894,4762032220,4842986767,4925317542,5009047941,5094201756,5180803185,5268876840,5358447746,5449541358,5542183561,5636400681,5732219493,5829667224,5928771567,6029560684,6132063215,6236308290,6342325531,6450145065,6559797531,6671314089,6784726428,6900066778,7017367913,7136663167,7257986441,7381372211,7506855538,7634472083,7764258108,7896250496,8030486754,8167005029,8305844114,8447043464,8590643203,8736684138,8885207768,9036256300,9189872657,9346100492,9504984201,9666568932,9830900604,9998025914,10167992355,10340848225,10516642645,10695425570,10877247804,11062161017,11250217754,11441471456,11635976471,11833788071,12034962468,13401000000,13261000000,11205000000,12090000000,61128000000,60328000000,63081000000,63247000000,61308000000,51633000000,63046000000,63731000000,62575000000,50257000000,62413000000,62131000000,61296000000,85098000000,85313000000,85097000000,80507000000,60498000000,85105000000,85422000000,85427000000,60760000000,85036000000,80505000000,80286000000,62587000000,62533000000,62394000000,60370000000,50004000000,62606000000,62414000000,62569000000,50243000000,30195000000,30187000000,30890000000,30581000000,31613000000,31231000000,29796000000,24821000000,29718000000,15006000000,15320000000,14716000000,-2426000000,942000000,-604000000,-271000000,588000000,224000000,-1772000000,1405000000,-10000000,1180000000,24096000000,15408000000
eur/month
TIME
2.7364,4.1244,4.3872,3.2866,2.3177,2.0489,2.0878,2.8335,3.8663,3.8695,0.7079,0.4377,0.871,0.2289,0.089,0.0937,-0.1078,-0.3201,-0.3548,-0.3628,-0.3918
unitless
(((long_term_interest_rate/100)*assets_index)
/
INIT(((long_term_interest_rate/100)*assets_index)))
unitless
.25
unitless
TIME
1535770000000,1664770000000,1694810000000,1688840000000,1721460000000,1813520000000,1897960000000,2086380000000,2271680000000,2284240000000,1896600000000,2004460000000,2107860000000,1965460000000,1949700000000,2032950000000,2145600000000,2240910000000,2395270000000,2542440000000,2740340000000
TIME
5061570000000,5334690000000,5565520000000,5785570000000,5951500000000,6183180000000,6424330000000,6709430000000,6997540000000,7273530000000,7250110000000,7390240000000,7535300000000,7581660000000,7636820000000,7754860000000,7911740000000,8108300000000,8358380000000,8600220000000,8831190000000
TIME
3188320000000,3308220000000,3455890000000,3617170000000,3726510000000,3842790000000,3975930000000,4125620000000,4291810000000,4526100000000,4735380000000,4857390000000,4842690000000,4918130000000,4958420000000,5018890000000,5094980000000,5174520000000,5306150000000,5445270000000,5629060000000
TIME
9872420000000,10362000000000,10824500000000,11280700000000,11555300000000,12019000000000,12435300000000,13036300000000,13703700000000,14197300000000,14038700000000,14400400000000,14645700000000,14754400000000,14895100000000,15199200000000,15621800000000,15999900000000,16548000000000,17055600000000,17605800000000
TIME
5.73,5.07,4.93,4.43,4.37,3.67,3.41,3.86,4.36,3.76,3.67,4.13,4.51,3.07,2.94,1.32,1.2,1.04,0.91,1.09,0.23
1*IF(TIME<2009)THEN(0)ELSE(1)
unitless
HH_income+LH_income
eur/year
avg_income_per_HH*0.2+avg_income_per_LH*0.8
eur/year
0.02
unitless
0.147*(long_term_interest_rate/INIT(long_term_interest_rate))
^Interest_rate_elasticity_on_investment
unitless
-.02
TIME
2.9936,0.9456,0.8,1.1434,2.0523,1.6211,1.3222,1.0265,0.4937,-0.1095,2.9621,3.6923,3.639,2.8411,2.851,1.2263,1.3078,1.3601,1.2648,1.4528,0.6218
100000
EUR/asset
(GDP*HH_share_of_GDP)
LT_interest_rates_data-Policy_rate_data
IF(TIME<2009)THEN(0)
ELSE(
((Monthly_QE * 12)//INIT(Monthly_QE*12)))
TIME
1.1,2.1,2.3,2.3,2.1,2.1,2.2,2.2,2.1,3.3,0.3,1.6,2.7,2.5,1.4,0.4,0.2,0.2,1.5,1.8,1.2
0.1
IF(TIME<2009)THEN(0)
ELSE(
((cumulative_QE)//HISTORY(cumulative_QE, 2009+DT)))
asset_supply -
IF(QE_switch=1)
THEN(cumulative_QE_share*QE_index)
ELSE(0)
.02
indicated_price
0.475,0.45,0.5,0.55,0.7,1,3.68,5.01,5.61,5.79,5.85
"S&D_effect_on_asset_price"*INIT(asset_mkt_price_index)
TIME
4768000000,18169000000,31376000000,42581000000,54672000000,115584000000,175912000000,238992000000,301323000000,362631000000,414264000000,475628000000,539358000000,601933000000,649877000000,712290000000,774421000000,832651000000,917749000000,1003060000000,1084560000000,1165070000000,1225570000000,1305940000000,1391360000000,1476790000000,1532050000000,1617090000000,1697590000000,1771740000000,1834330000000,1896860000000,1952710000000,2013080000000,2063090000000,2118110000000,2180530000000,2243090000000,2286060000000,2316250000000,2346440000000,2369160000000,2399740000000,2431360000000,2455490000000,2485290000000,2510110000000,2532100000000,2547100000000,2562420000000,2569810000000,2567290000000,2568240000000,2559080000000,2558810000000,2559400000000,2553510000000,2551700000000,2553100000000,2545700000000,2546880000000,2570980000000,2579450000000,2599750000000,2623180000000,2666470000000,2704910000000,2743080000000,2775160000000,2796690000000,2815820000000,2842450000000,2867800000000,2895520000000,2908910000000,2926750000000,2947670000000,2963250000000,2982160000000,3002310000000,3017020000000,3038610000000,3055360000000,3068280000000,3091300000000,3112500000000,3123380000000,3142220000000,3162920000000,3179060000000
0
∆_cum_QE
IF(TIME<2009)THEN(0)
ELSE(Monthly_QE*12)
cumu_QE
Production_capacity_goal
Change_in_capacity
Production_capacity
Change_in_capacity
Production_capacity_goal
Capacity_utilization
Production_capacity
Capacity_utilization
Capacity_utilization
GDP
Production_capacity
GDP
Capacity_adj_time
Change_in_capacity
HH_prospensity_to_consume
HH_consumption
HH_consumption
Total_consumption
LH_prospensity_to_consume
LH_consumption
LH_consumption
Total_consumption
Total_consumption
AD
Net_exports_data
AD
Investment
AD
GDP
LH_income
AD
Production_capacity_goal
HH_share_of_GDP
LH_income
HH_share_of_GDP
HH_profits
tax_rate_HH
HH_taxes
tax_rate_LH
LH_taxes
HH_income
HH_consumption
HH_taxes
HH_consumption
long_term_interest_rate
HH_prospensity_to_consume
long_term_interest_rate
LH_prospensity_to_consume
interest_rate_elasticity_LH
LH_prospensity_to_consume
interest_rate_elasticity_HH
HH_prospensity_to_consume
Paula:
I set the elasticities to be negative and very small--and the same values for HH and LH and for investment. But they are not likely to be the same values.
You should estimate (assume?) the values and, more importantly, hypothesize about about the relative size of all three elasticities.
long_term_interest_rate
Propensity_to_invest
total_asset_demand
indicated_price
asset_price_adj_time
asset_mkt_price_index
asset_mkt_price_index
asset_demand
asset_demand
total_asset_demand
Paula:
Below, the red variables have been added to reflect the structure of a long-term asset (LTA) purchase policy (QE). These are obviously hypothetical values in the demand and supply curves, but the main hypothesis is:
1. QE policy adds extra demand for LTA, pusing up the LTA price.
2. Given the fixed asset interest pmt, that pushes down the LT premium.
3. The falling LT premium reduces the LT interest rate.
In the previous version I sent to you (DW 2nd edits), the LT premium was fixed, and only a change in the policy rate would change the LT interest rate. Now, the premium is a variable, affected by changes in the price of LTA.
HH_income
HH_taxes
LH_income
LH_taxes
LH_taxes
LH_consumption
LH_income
LH_consumption
Total_households
avg_income_per_LH
Total_households
avg_income_per_HH
avg_income_per_HH
"pre-tax_Income_inequality"
avg_income_per_LH
"pre-tax_Income_inequality"
avg_income_per_HH
disposable_income_inequality
avg_income_per_LH
disposable_income_inequality
avg_income_per_HH
avg_income_per_LH
disposable_income_inequality
disposable_income_inequality
asset_mkt_price_index
asset_supply
HH_interest_income_index
HH_interest_income_index
HH_income
long_term_interest_rate
HH_interest_income_index
QE_switch
total_asset_demand
Total_income
Total_income
Average_income
Average_income
Interest_rate_elasticity_on_investment
Propensity_to_invest
Propensity_to_invest
Investment
Investment
HH_profits
HH_income
GDP
HH_profits
HH_interest_income_share_of_profits_income
HH_income
HH_income
Income_inequality
LH_income
Income_inequality
tax_rate_HH
Income_inequality
tax_rate_LH
Income_inequality
Policy_rate_data
long_term_interest_rate
Government_spending_data
AD
LT_interest_rates_data
long_term_premium_data
long_term_premium_data
Monthly_QE
Monthy_QE_index
QE_share
total_asset_demand
fixed_asset_interest_pmt
long_term_premium
long_term_premium
long_term_premium
long_term_interest_rate
Expected_inflation
long_term_premium
Elasticity_of_inflation
long_term_premium
Monthy_QE_index
total_asset_demand
asset_supply
Total_asset_supply
Total_asset_supply
indicated_price
QE_index
Total_asset_supply
Total_asset_supply
cumulative_QE_share
Total_asset_supply
asset_mkt_price_index
long_term_premium
asset_mkt_price_index
indicated_asset_price
"S&D_effect_on_asset_price"
indicated_asset_price
indicated_asset_price
asset_mkt_price_index
indicated_price
"S&D_effect_on_asset_price"
cumu_QE
cumulative_QE
∆_cum_QE
QE_index
HH_income
LH_income
tax_rate_HH
tax_rate_LH
assets_index
HH_income
LH_income
avg_income_per_HH
avg_income_per_LH
GDP
Policy_rate_data
long_term_premium_data
QE_switch
Monthly_QE
cumulative_QE
(Total_consumption+Net_exports+Investment+Government_spending)
TIME
68141570000,95579400000,140493000000,108254000000,116226000000,110617000000,91210170000,84546130000,52056640000,38976850000,46329370000,25732020000,26561590000,39115380000,27035040000,38705730000,44068370000,45798390000,38099050000,9205990000,20540470000
TIME
861713000000,1054940000000,1208920000000,1246180000000,1314080000000,1281140000000,1429280000000,1527110000000,1794850000000,1955780000000,1848470000000,1935010000000,2334570000000,2541070000000,2672900000000,2961960000000,3704270000000,3902130000000,3923700000000,4004140000000,3992530000000
unitless
LH_taxes+HH_taxes
1.8e+12
800e+9
2e+12
18e+12
HH_consumption+LH_consumption
HH_prospensity_to_consume*
SMTH1(HH_income-HH_taxes_1, .25)
0.5
LH_prospensity_to_consume*
SMTH1(LH_income-LH_taxes_1, .25)
0.95
.4
.1
HH_income*tax_rate_HH
LH_income*tax_rate_LH
Net_exports
AD
Investment
AD
Government_spending
AD
LH_taxes
Government_spending
HH_taxes
Government_spending
HH_prospensity_to_consume
HH_consumption
HH_consumption
Total_consumption
LH_prospensity_to_consume
LH_consumption
LH_consumption
Total_consumption
tax_rate_HH
HH_taxes_1
tax_rate_LH
LH_taxes_1
HH_income
HH_consumption
HH_taxes_1
HH_consumption
HH_income
HH_taxes_1
LH_income
LH_taxes_1
LH_taxes_1
LH_consumption
LH_income
LH_consumption
Total_consumption
AD
(HH_interest_income_index*HH_interest_income_share_of_profits_income*
HH_profits)*1
eur/year
GDP
*(1-HH_share_of_GDP)
eur/year
.3
unitless
.167
unitless
TIME
131372390.29,132412569.41,133452748.53,134492927.65,135533106.76,136573285.88,137613465,137950900,139387100,141255700,142038400,142452500,143555700,144793800,145855300,147700400,148812100,149514500,150337900,151369300,152325500
Households
avg_income_per_LH_1/avg_income_per_HH_1
unitless
LH_income/(Total_households_1*.8)
eur/year
HH_income/(Total_households_1*.2)
eur/year
avg_income_per_LH_1*(1-tax_rate_LH)
/avg_income_per_HH_1*(1-tax_rate_HH)
unitless
Total_households_1
avg_income_per_LH_1
Total_households_1
avg_income_per_HH_1
avg_income_per_HH_1
"pre-tax_Income_inequality_1"
avg_income_per_LH_1
"pre-tax_Income_inequality_1"
avg_income_per_HH_1
disposable_income_inequality_1
avg_income_per_LH_1
disposable_income_inequality_1
HH_income
avg_income_per_HH_1
LH_income
avg_income_per_LH_1
tax_rate_HH
disposable_income_inequality_1
tax_rate_LH
disposable_income_inequality_1
Policy_rate
per year
Money_market_rate
+long_term_premium
per year
asset_mkt_price
9900000000000,9910000000000,9940000000000,9960000000000,10000000000000,10060000000000,10130000000000,10330000000000,10900000000000
asset_mkt_price
10790000000000,10380000000000,10160000000000,10080000000000,10000000000000,9935000000000,9870000000000,9840000000000,9810000000000
1/50
{1 week}
asset_demand+annual_QE
((total_asset_demand/asset_supply)*asset_mkt_price)
SMTH1(indicated_asset_price, asset_price_adj_time, 100000)
10e+7
bonds
100000
EUR/asset
.03*100000
EUR/year
100*fixed_asset_interest_pmt/asset_mkt_price
IF(Policy_rate<.5)
THEN(QE_switch*
SMTH1(Monthly_QE*12, .25))
ELSE(0)
EUR/year
1
unitless
Policy_rate_data
TIME
3213100000,4499400000,4500100000,4499700000,4498800000,4499700000,4499500000,4500100000,4499600000,4499400000,5370400000,6499900000,7499600000,7048000000,6620400000,6096700000,5999900000,5992800000,5990700000,5539400000,5110800000,4566500000,4500100000,4500000000,4500000000,4983700000,5410600000,5844000000,5910700000,5910000000,5987900000,6000100000,6000100000,6000300000,6000100000,6000100000,6000000000,6000000000,6000100000,6000000000,5999900000,6000000000,5999900000,5516000000,5080600000,4533100000,4499900000,4500000000,4500000000,4500000000,4500000000,4498800000,4497800000,4498700000,4499900000,4499600000,4499400000,4500000000,4499900000,4500000000,4500000000,0,5673900000,6714200000,7500000000,7500100000,7500000000,7500100000,7499800000,7500000000,7500100000,7500000000,7500000000,7799900000,8224000000,8685700000,9000100000,9000100000,9000100000,8999900000,8999800000,8999900000,9000000000,9000200000,8960400000,9620700000,10466000000,11372600000,12000100000,12000200000,12000100000,12000100000,12000200000,12000200000,12000200000,12000100000,12000000000,12464300000,13464300000,14571500000,15000000000,15000100000,15000300000,15000300000,17171600000,26232100000,26500400000,27857700000,26882900000,26848900000,26848900000,27863400000,29500900000,28788500000,27537600000,29930000000,30000600000,33427600000,45246800000,45717800000,61356400000,55144600000,47243100000,44307500000,42686300000,40059400000,50492400000,69401200000,64541800000,61687600000,62607900000,59344000000,64840500000,66217500000,64106700000,65053900000,66640300000,70669700000,57322500000,43222800000,43500300000,39262600000,34004100000,33625300000,31659500000,31824900000,32100800000,33543100000,32045200000,31785900000,31163100000,32152200000,38981900000,37364600000,38714500000,38896900000,62725600000,68364000000,86008700000,109336000000,108874000000,107104000000,107493000000,107991000000,107682000000,106282000000,105381000000,104413000000,103678000000,96034400000,84321300000,78292700000,74989500000,72844600000,70796800000,69859600000,69232600000,67460600000,65244100000,62527000000,59214800000,57640300000,57042000000,53460700000,51961700000,50777000000,46005300000,41470500000,38740100000,39820400000,41247800000,39614500000,45440900000,0,37497200000,38609100000,0,40663700000,44323500000,0,46217200000,46212100000,0,45929400000,46695000000,0,46168100000,46075400000,0,45635500000,47158700000,0,48369700000,50351500000,0,51178300000,54893100000,0,55425700000,0,70744600000,76744800000,76743400000,0,76860400000,76526500000,0,76370700000,76064300000,0,76053100000,0,75954800000,75726700000,74419100000,0,73989600000,72777400000,0,72637000000,72383000000,0,72309300000,72027900000,0,71863400000,70008100000,0,69246200000,66851800000,0,66368000000
TIME
0.392,0.382,0.405,0.418,0.403333333,0.404166667,0.397,0.405833333,0.404666667,0.396666667,0.402142857,0.4025,0.392083333,0.398125,0.40375,0.4025,0.397894737,0.396818182,0.395,0.392857143,0.391481481
Money_market_rate
long_term_interest_rate
asset_supply
indicated_asset_price
total_asset_demand
indicated_asset_price
indicated_asset_price
asset_mkt_price
asset_price_adj_time
asset_mkt_price
asset_mkt_price
asset_demand
asset_mkt_price
indicated_asset_price
asset_demand
total_asset_demand
fixed_asset_interest_pmt
long_term_premium
asset_mkt_price
long_term_premium
annual_QE
total_asset_demand
long_term_premium
long_term_interest_rate
QE_switch
annual_QE
Policy_rate
Money_market_rate
Policy_rate
annual_QE
Monthly_QE
annual_QE
asset_mkt_price
asset_supply
Policy_rate_data
Policy_rate