71135008-c957-4581-b903-0a944c3e70b5
isee systems, inc.
0
30
4
102005;Population_en_Bonne_Sante,0;Population_Malade,1;Personnes_Contaminees,2;Fraction_de_Bien_Portants,3;Population_totale,4;infectiosité,5;Proba_pour_1_Personne_saine_d'etre_contaminée,6;:2,Run 2,0,30,0.25,0.25,0,1,1,1,0,Months,0,2020-Nov-09 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mo
month
1
dmnl
unitless
= Nombre initial de personnes en bonnes santé : Au début t0 = tout le monde : ici 30, mais vous pouvez modifié ce nombre
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• PRESENTATION :
1. French (in English in 2.) Modèles pour mieux comprendre la dynamique d'une épidémie et comment les mesures prises permettent d'en atténuer les effets" - Projet interdisciplines Hervé Gigaroff, Lycée "Emile Combes" de Pons 17 (France)-
• Ceci est le Modèle de base “1.B” pour commencer à mieux comprendre la dynamique d'une épidémie, type CoVid 19, , simplifiée mais tout à fait réaliste…
…Avant de voir, avec des modèles suivants, comment les mesures prises permettent d'en atténuer les effets"
Pour les “matheux”, fans d’équations différentielles, ce modèle n’est jamais que la mise en forme, selon les lois de le “SYSTÉMIQUE DYNAMIQUE” de ce qui est représenté , en équations différentielles dans cette excellente vidéo:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2tI3MQFqkI&fbclid=IwAR3QdfrTCQPKNUogozNchAlpu0SwTlvQx_fPNaTDjZ1ijdk6wc0snzJc69k
Donc ce modèle permet aux “non-matheux” d’aborder cette compréhension…
- 2 jeux “Épidémie Covid19 #1 et #2” , permettant de vivre (en”pour de semblant”) la dynamique d’une épidémie, vont accompagner ces modèles , qui ne sont que le débriefing de ce qui s’est passé dans ces “jeux”.
• Websites récents sur "Epidémies & modélisation" : 1.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bM7AOBxqjnE, titré "Cette pandémie, vue depuis 2021" du site "Dirty Biology",
2.https://sciencetonnante.wordpress.com/2020/03/12/epidemie-nuage-radioactif-et-distanciation-sociale/ , titré "Épidémie, nuage radioactif et distanciation sociale",
3.https://medium.com/tomas-pueyo/coronavirus-le-marteau-et-la-danse-bce68d354c0c, titré "Coronavirus, le marteau et la danse".
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• 2. English: Models for a better understanding of the dynamics of an epidemic and how protective measures make it possible to mitigate the effects "- Interdisciplinary project Hervé Gigaroff, High-school Emile Combes de Pons 17 (France)
• Here is Basic model “1.B” to begin to better understand the dynamics of an epidemic, type CoVid 19, in asimplified but completely realistic way…
… Before seeing, with the further models, how measures taken can mitigate the effects
For the "math minded students”, fans of differential equations, this model is nothing else than the shaping, according to the laws of the "DYNAMIC SYSTEM" of what is represented, in differential equations in this excellent video :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2tI3MQFqkI&fbclid=IwAR3QdfrTCQPKNUogozNchAlpu0SwTlvQx_fPNaTDjZ1ijdk6wc0snzJc69k
So this model allows the "non-math minded students" to approach this understanding ...
- 2 games “Covid19 epidemic # 1 and # 2”, allowing to live (“for pretense”) the dynamics of an epidemic, will accompany these models, which are only the debriefing of what happened in these “games”.
• Websites récents sur "Epidémies & modélisation" : 1.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bM7AOBxqjnE, titled "This pandemia, seen from 2021" from website "Dirty Biology",
2.https://sciencetonnante.wordpress.com/2020/03/12/epidemie-nuage-radioactif-et-distanciation-sociale/ , titled "Epidemic, nuage radioactive cloud and social distanciation",
3.https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 , titled "Coronavirus, the hammer and the dance".
30
Personnes_Contaminees
Personne
Nombre initial de personnes malades (=infectées par le virus) : ici = 1, mais vous pouvez changer ce nombre initial
1
Personnes_Contaminees
Personne
Nombre de nouvelles pesonnes contaminés (par unité de temps = ici chaque mois): Il dépend de1. de la probabilité de rencontrer un personne déjà malade,
2. de
infectiosité*Proba_pour_1_Personne_saine_d'etre_contaminée
Personne/Months
Population_en_Bonne_Sante/Population_totale
Dimensionless
Population_en_Bonne_Sante+Population_Malade
Personne
=probabilité de rencontre entre une personne saine et une personne malade (Par exemple , dans le "jeu Epidémie Corona*", par poigné de main infectante;
dans la vraie vie, on vous laisse imaginer…)
• Probabilité de mêm type que "Combine de chance a -t-on de tier une boule rouge parmi un lot de boules noires et rouges, si… …,
sauf que, là, cette probabilité évolue au cours du temps… ;-)
Population_Malade*Fraction_de_Bien_Portants
Dimensionless
INFECTIOSITÉ: indique à quel point la maladie est contagieuse.
Une valeur de 1 (100%) signifie que chaque contact entre une personne bien portante et une malade entraîne une infection.
Vous pouvez modifier ce chiffre : Par exemple 0,5 sigifie qu'à chaque contact entre une personne bien portante et une malade, vous ave 50% de chance d'attraper la maladie.
1
Population_totale
Fraction_de_Bien_Portants
Population_en_Bonne_Sante
Fraction_de_Bien_Portants
Fraction_de_Bien_Portants
Proba_pour_1_Personne_saine_d'etre_contaminée
Population_Malade
Proba_pour_1_Personne_saine_d'etre_contaminée
infectiosité
Personnes_Contaminees
Proba_pour_1_Personne_saine_d'etre_contaminée
Personnes_Contaminees
Population_Malade
Population_totale
Population_en_Bonne_Sante
Population_totale