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Number of items: 14
Date joined: Aug 24 2016

I am a Visiting Research Fellow in Mathematics at the University of South Wales. Before my retiremen ...Read more I am a Visiting Research Fellow in Mathematics at the University of South Wales. Before my retirement, I was a senior lecturer at the university, teaching specialist courses in system dynamics, mathematical modelling and agent-based methods. I was awarded a BSc in astrophysics, and a PhD in applied mathematics, from the University of London, and then spent my career as a lecturer in mathematics. My research is in mathematical sociology with applications to the spread of social phenomena, such as religions, political movements and civilisations. In the mid-1990s, I moved into system dynamics to help present models to non-technical audiences and improve model construction. Since then, I have used my background in physics to help understand the relationship between SD model structure and behaviour, developing the loop impact method and the Newtonian interpretative framework. I am currently a vice president of the UK chapter of the SD society, with responsibility for membership. Hide full description


John Hayward's Work

#1

The Dynastic Cycle

The model of Feichtinger, Forst and Piccardi.
sim262 runs, 21 downloads
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History limit cycles social modeling psychology Hayward
#2

Collins Theory of Geopolitics - Effect of War

The spread of an empire according to the theory of Randall Collins and equations of Peter Turchin
sim328 runs, 35 downloads
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war empire geopolitics collins turchin
#3

Limited Enthusiasm Model of Church Growth

A model of the growth of the Christian Church in periods of religious revival. The growth mechanism ... Read more
A model of the growth of the Christian Church in periods of religious revival. The growth mechanism is similar to the spread of an infectious disease.
sim294 runs, 27 downloads
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Church growth Revival Religion Epidemiology Enthusiasts
#4

Rise and Fall of Empires

Empires rise through the desire for things such as power, peace & wealth. It can even attract others ... Read more
Empires rise through the desire for things such as power, peace & wealth. It can even attract others. However the rise of nationalism, institutionalism and the remoteness of the ruling elite can lead to imperial decline
sim24 runs
Empire Overshoot and decline Imperial Expansion Power Peace
#5

Collins Theory of Geopolitics - Logistical Load

The spread of an empire according to the theory of Randall Collins and equations of Peter Turchin. I ... Read more
The spread of an empire according to the theory of Randall Collins and equations of Peter Turchin. Includes limits to growth due the distance beween the empire's expansion zone and centre.
sim67 runs, 29 downloads
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limits to growth war empire geopolitics Collins
#6

Turchin’s Metaethnic Frontier Theory of Imperial Growth

A country builds its empire by attacking its neighbours and taking over both their land and their pe ... Read more
A country builds its empire by attacking its neighbours and taking over both their land and their people. The larger the empire becomes, the more resources they have available to take further territory by force. However the further they expand, the harder they find it to keep expanding due to the geographical and organisational logistics involved. Additionally the empire finds it harder to maintain social cooperation among its people, its asabiya.
sim285 runs, 55 downloads
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Turchin Empire Collapse Collins Geopolitical
#7

Limits to Growth Archetype

Shifting loop dominance in a limits-to-growth archetype is examined using the Hayward/Boswell Loop I ... Read more
Shifting loop dominance in a limits-to-growth archetype is examined using the Hayward/Boswell Loop Impact Method.
sim1424 runs, 113 downloads
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Loop dominance Limits to Growth archetype loop impact Hayward
#8

Urban Business Expansion

The business sector of the Three Stock Urban Dynamics model is examined using the Hayward/Boswell Lo ... Read more
The business sector of the Three Stock Urban Dynamics model is examined using the Hayward/Boswell Loop Impact Method.
sim1254 runs, 72 downloads
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Loop Dominance Limits to Growth Shifting loop dominance Urban Dyanmics Loop Impact
#9

Inventory Workforce Model

Oscillations in an Inventory Workforce model are examined using the Hayward/Boswell Loop Impact Meth ... Read more
Oscillations in an Inventory Workforce model are examined using the Hayward/Boswell Loop Impact Method.
sim329 runs, 120 downloads
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Loop Impact Loop Impact Workforce Inventory Control Oscillations
#10

Overshoot and Collapse

Overshoot and collapse behaviour is examined using the Hayward/Boswell Loop Impact Method.
sim58 runs, 29 downloads
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Overshoot collapse loop impact loop dominance Hayward
#11

Spread of Disease

A simple SIR model is examined using the Hayward/Boswell Loop Impact Method.
sim207 runs, 68 downloads
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SIR Disease Infection Loop dominance loop impact
#12

Demographic Fiscal Model of State

An agrarian population can exceed its normal carrying capacity by the formation of a state that help ... Read more
An agrarian population can exceed its normal carrying capacity by the formation of a state that helps improve land productivity. As the population and state grow, it becomes harder for state revenue to stay ahead of expenditure. Eventually the state runs out of money and collapses, with a large drop in population numbers.
sim29 runs, 29 downloads
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Social modelling Psychology Turchin Overshoot Collapse
#13

Gone with the Wind

The loop impact method of Hayward/Boswell is applied to a single second order balancing loop using t ... Read more
The loop impact method of Hayward/Boswell is applied to a single second order balancing loop using the narrative of the love relationship between Rhett and Scarlet from Gone with the Wind.
sim109 runs, 15 downloads
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Loop dominance Loop impact Oscillation Second order loop Hayward
#14

Building a Model of Church Growth Using System Dynamics

This simulation talks you through the steps involved in building a simple model of church growth and ... Read more
This simulation talks you through the steps involved in building a simple model of church growth and decline. System dynamics terms are explained. The consequences of hypotheses are examined as they are introduced.
sim79 runs, 4 downloads
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church growth word of mouth enthusiasts model construction Hayward
X

Sim App (Sim)

An interface that allows users to interact with a model.

Image of a sim

Sim apps allow users to interact with a model using buttons, sliders, knobs, tables, graphs, and storytelling. These interactions help users understand how parts of a system interact.

Interfaces are created by model authors in the Stella desktop software and can be uploaded to the isee Exchange.

Model

A diagram that represents how elements in a system influence one another.

Image of a model

Models are mathematical representations of how elements in a system are connected and interact (e.g., ecosystems, organizations, supply chains). When running models on the Exchange, results can be viewed in output devices like graphs and tables.

Models appear in the isee Exchange directory when authors upload them from the Stella® desktop software or create them with Stella Online™.

Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)

A map that represents the feedback structure of a system.

Image of a CLD

CLDs are high-level maps that represents the feedback structure of a system and easily communicate the essence of a model. They appear in the isee Exchange when authors upload them from the Stella desktop software or create them with Stella Online™.